PC factory revealed the time point for demand to stabilize

PC (personal computer) brand factories and foundries have successively released a consensus on the PC industry's poor short-term market prospects. The demand in the second half of this year will be under pressure. The overall market conditions and industry adjustment period will be at least the first half of next year, and the second half of next year can be expected to gradually Back to normal.

Although the PC consumption market has declined, which was originally within the expectations of various manufacturers, the lengthening of the timeline of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has expanded and accelerated the rise in inflation, which is beyond the expectations of the industry. The already weakened consumer confidence has aggravated the blow, and this time the supply and demand reversal of the PC market has appeared quickly and violently.

ASUS does not shy away from saying that it will further increase its inventory level at the end of the second quarter and continue to be at a peak of more than 200 billion yuan, which is a short-term risk that needs to be taken now.

Faced with the weakening of the PC market and the reversal of supply and demand in the short term, ASUS believes that the industry still needs several quarters to adjust, and it is expected that the market adjustment period will not come to an end until the first half of next year or the third quarter at the earliest. This is also in line with Lenovo's view that the PC business will continue to weaken over the next two to three quarters.

However, both ASUS and Lenovo have a positive view on the medium and long-term market conditions of the PC industry. Especially after more than two years, the structural changes brought about by the epidemic to the PC industry are irreversible, and PC products have become the most productive and important tools under the digital transformation, which will bring rigid demand to the PC market.

Although the unsatisfied commercial market demand has been suppressed or temporarily stopped due to the industry being dragged down by black swans in the short term, it is expected that after a few quarters of adjustment, the suppressed demand will gradually ferment after the second half of next year. Promote the recovery of the overall market.

In addition to brand manufacturers, major PC foundries have recently released their shipment prospects for the second half of the year. Among them, Quanta, which is mainly engaged in consumer notebook products, is expected to benefit from Apple's new Macbook products in the third quarter of this year, pushing up single-quarter shipments by more than 20% quarter-on-quarter. The annual shipment exceeded the peak of more than 75 million units, and this year, it will drop by more than 20% and fall below 60 million units.

As for Compal, it also expects that its shipments this year will decrease by 20% year-on-year. Among them, in the third quarter, because US customers have also revised their commercial models, shipments are expected to drop by single digits quarter-on-quarter.

On the other hand, Inventec and Wistron, both of which are mainly commercial models, have also turned conservative in their notebook shipments in the third quarter, which are estimated to be the same as in the second quarter. like